Hannah Fletcher
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As the death toll in China's Sichuan province climbs, the nation’s bloggers have joined together in the search for a scapegoat.
Broadband connections across the country are pulsing with rumours of "earthquake omens" involving toads or butterflies - all allegedly ignored by the authorities. Some even talk of a vast pre-Olympic conspiracy.
One blogger from Shandong province, in eastern China, wrote that more than a month ago, he went to his local earthquake resesarch centre several times to report that his animals had been disturbed and restless.
But, he wrote: "They not only ridiculed me, they accused me of making up stories."
Other blogs link to Chinese newspaper reports of bizarre natural occurrences in the past few weeks.
The Chutian Metropolis Daily reported that on April 26, 80,000 tonnes of water suddenly drained from a large pond in Enshi, Hubei province. The province shares a border with Chongqing Municipality, which was devastated by the earthquake on Monday.
On May 10, a Sichuan-based newspaper, the West China Metropolis Daily, reported that hundreds of migrating toads descended upon the streets of Mianyang, the second largest city in the province which neighbours Wenchuan County, the epicentre of the earthquake.
The Chinese state news agency reported today that 18,645 people were buried under the city's collapsed buildings and 3,629 people confirmed dead.
In the city of Mianzhu, 60 miles from the epicentre, bloggers pointed to reports just weeks before the earthquake of a mass migration of more than one million butterflies.
Other bloggers seized upon an as yet unsubstantiated rumour that a Chinese geologist had predicted the earthquake in advance but had been stifled by the authorities, and by fear.
"On the seventh of May, a geologist predicted this [earthquake]," wrote one blogger. "But he didn't dare make it public."
Another blogger from Beijing wrote: “Everyone is talking about the rescue effort but they are not actually joining it.
“So, instead we should turn our thoughts to why [the authorities] didn’t forecast the earthquake and evacuate the people...
“Could it be that it was out of a desire for a peaceful Olympics?”
In an editorial in the Southern Metropolis Daily, the established journalist and commentator, Chang Ping, cited the growing tide of rumours and speculation surrounding the earthquake as evidence of the need for greater freedom of information in China.
He wrote: “As the phone lines went down, rumours multiplied...I understood that the vast majority of this information could not be verified and that the police regarded it as the transmission of rumours punishable by criminal detention.
“But as someone with relatives in the affected area, I could not stop myself from seeking whatever information I could ...”
He added: ”The information was clearly unreliable, and it was difficult to tell what was true or false.
“Together it all spoke of a single problem, and that is the people’s fierce appetite for information when faced with a public incident.”
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Even if we can predict a quake, by the time warning is evident, it's not likely to enough time to flee. I think some animals can feel it before it occurs: I had parakeets go crazy in the cage for no reason, minutes before a small quake in the 80s; same with our dog a few years ago.
Monica, Bay Area, USA
To give a quake forecast, you must predict precisely when, where and how much is the probability. Otherwise it's just useless. For example, the guy in Shandong province claimed that he had made a prediction. But a prediction of what? Shandong is around 2000km away from the epicenter!
Hai, Denver,
strange animal behaviors, odd weather conditions, etc are certainly a common experience by very localized populations. BUT, they usually occur too close to a timing of a major earthquake to prevent human suffering. AND they also occur frequently enough outside of an aerthquake to make their meaning
bruce, yakima, usa
Gotta love that geologist that predicted the earthquake but did not make it public!
Here is my prediction:
Albert, Montreal, Canada
Horses, for one, are excellent earthquake predictors. It wouldn't suprise me if other animals have innate abilities to sense danger by different means...
Matt, St. Louis, MO, USA
I can't help but remember that when Taiwan suffered a devastating earthquake in Sept, 1999, China decided to play politics and demanded that overseas organizations providing both rescue and relief aid seek approval from the Chinese Govt rather than thru the Taiwanese before being able to do anything
Kym , Sur, Oman
Well, first I'd like to add, that in most instances there are always two sides to every coin which is a common saying here in China. I have in fact been researching Earthquakes since the EARTHQUAKE! As I live here in CHINA now. I used to live in USA.
First, the Gov has responded well really well!
Qiu Feng, Suining, China
Rangers fans are getting blamed for everything else why not this as well.
Scott, London,
Iggy has a good point when he mentions "HAARP" and its effects on the weather. A lot of countries take part in weather manipulation... We CAN start hurricanes!!
In the tsunami there was speculation of a device being set off triggering underwater fault line.
Stop blogging, start digging!!!!!!!
Andrew T, England, UK,
HI,
If we are overseas how are we supposed find out if our realtives are ok?
My father was doing photography in Chengdu on 8th May and I have not heard from him since.
There is absoloutly no news from the English Embassey and I am worried sick!
Is the internet down over there?
Camelia Hyman, Bournemouth, United Kingdom
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