Lucy Bannerman
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When it comes to the science of surviving a potentially deadly outbreak, there is one question that has always proved particularly tricky for experts.
How do you study the spread of an epidemic, and thus form an emergency plan to ensure the survival of the human race, without putting the population at risk of a real disease?
Researchers have now made an unlikely breakthrough, thanks to a glitch in a fantasy computer game. In an online game called World of Warcraft, an unexpected error in the software has provided a ready-made laboratory for studying the effects of an epidemic.
The 6.5 million players who control characters in the role-playing game supplied the necessary element of unpredictable human reactions without any risk to the real world.
The discovery, revealed in next month’s issue of The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal, has been hailed as a significant step forward in understanding how a deadly virus could break out.
“By using these games as an untapped experimental framework, we may be able to gain deeper insight into the incredible complexity of infectious disease epidemiology in social groups,” wrote the authors, Eric Lofgren, of Rutgers University, New Jersey, and Nina Fefferman, of Tufts University, Boston.
And it all happened by accident. In September 2005 what was intended as a minor hindrance for a small group of characters spiralled beyond the control of program-makers into a full-blown epidemic.
A new villain, a winged serpent called Hakkar, originally designed as a challenge for only the strongest characters, started transmitting its “corrupted blood” virus down the ranks until it affected almost every area and every player in the game.
The scientists were able to monitor how quickly the disease spread and where to, while assessing the players’ individual responses to the outbreak. The particular features of the game, such as the many hours players around the world dedicate to it and the emotional investment they put into their online alter egos, offer scientists a tantalisingly close match to real social conditions.
As the virus spread, very real challenges emerged, such as the failure of quarantine measures, further transmission by character’s pets and the existence of “immune” characters, who act as carriers, passing the virus to others while failing to succumb to symptoms.
Professor Fefferman said that the findings could be of great value to public health officials in developing the best way to manage the flow of information in such a crisis. “If, God forbid, a disease broke out in London, you could see what would happen if people were told immediately of the risk. Would there be panic and chaos, or would it allow them to psychologically accept the danger and act accordingly? What would happen if we made people feel too reassured?
“These are all things that have a great impact on the number of people who would be affected. They are also things we just don’t know, so [virtual games] could be of great value in helping us understand what their true emotional responses would be.”
World of Warcraft
— World of Warcraft is a “massive multiplayer online role-playing game” (MMORPG)
— There are about 6.5 million players worldwide. After the first free month, gamers have to pay
— Thousands of players adventure together, forming friendships, slaying monsters, and engaging in epic quests that can last weeks
— There are thousands of hours of game play, with a nearly infinite variety of goals to achieve and new content added regularly
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The public rarely panic. The authorities often do,,,mm actually thats true to a degree,, the real problem with that point is,, the media panic,, the government,, act and often the people stand around watching,, i have often been in bomb scares,, and you have the bomb squad trying to solve the problem and the general public gawking at the,, scene,, I've often thought what would happen if it exploded,, aside from a lot of dead people,, as to people wouldn't spread disease for the hell of it,, yes they would,, read you're history,, it has happened,, and often,,
Spencer, Basildon, Great britain
For those who think humans cannot be so heartless to spread the disease, there as already been many examples of it during some of the current and past epidemics.
Take HIV for example, in many of cities of North America, there are those who knownly have HIV intentionally infecting others either targeted specifically or to share the "apocalypse". I remember some stories and warnings of some people Vancouver and elsewhere randomly stabbing people with HIV or Hepatitis infected needles. The larger amount of known cases of this in Africa in some areas where disease is bit more rampant.
As for making sure the other "side" is suffering the infection as well, to avoid letting them win like spreading to the Alliance, what makes one think something like that wouldn't happen in real life with rivaling countries dealing with uncontrollable epidemic? If there was big epidemic during the Cold War, there is a good chance some individuals will do their best the other side "doesn't win".
Melanie, Ottawa, Canada
Care should be taken in drwaing parallels between the actions of the game player and real world scenarios. I doubt that people would actively "'take' the virus to" other places in order to share the apocolypse.
I have watched my sons (11 &10) participate in this game and their behavious is significantly different to the real world in many ways. They know the difference between the game world and their real space.
Just because there are a lot of participants and it seems that some parallels can be drawn does not mean that the software authors have got anywhere close to replicating the complexities of real life within the game.
Colin, verwood, dorset, UK
I would like to have read what was learned too. From what I heard of the outbreak, it involved thousands of people deliberately trying to spread the disease as far as possible. I would hope that real life reactions wouldn't be so heartless.
Tom, Melbourne, Australia
"At last - something useful from a silly time waster."
Your lack of understanding into a different form of entertainment is astounding, sir. I'm not going to launch a tirade of facts at you about the benefits that "gamers" often end up experiencing. All I will say is that ANY hobby is a "time waster"- They're called "pass times" for a reason. If you don't understand something, then by all means, feel free not to understand, but don't go around being so dismissive of them- it makes you seem arrogant and more than a little foolish.
Chris, Chester, England
Anyone who has played Warcraft for longer than an hour (particularly if they roll a human character and spend that hour in the midst of Goldshire...) could tell you where the flaws lie in this supposed 'research'.
The plague was released into a population that can be stratified into two generalised groups: the characters controlled by a more mentally mature population who would role-play the situation accordingly, and the ever-present cliché of the semi-naked female characters controlled by 12 year olds who will think it great fun to infect as many people as possible before they drop dead, probably dancing on tables at the same time.
Perhaps if there was a release into one of the more serious role-playing realms it would be of some use, but I don't think it's worth the effort unless the 'lol' factor can be controlled... there'd be a lot people willing to help with this. Just form an orderly queue, give us the epic shotguns and the ability to exterminate members of our own faction...
Sara, Oxford, UK
Every body, buy your resist gear NOW!!! That is the answer to Global Pandemic. LOL.
Ron, Canyon Lake, Texas
I was just reading an article by Nicholas Gessler on the benefits of using (evolutionary) computations to model human culture. It immediately reminded me of RPG games like this one, and to read that a simulation of an epidemic spread has actually happened is... well, pretty cool. Warcraft is exactly like the program he was alluding to, to try and completely represent human culture and create "what if" scenarios like this one. Awesome, awesome. It's a great accident, one well worth looking into.
Gayle, Manila,
My 13 year old son is now going to hold up this article every time his mom "nags" him for spending way too much time on the computer playing WOW. WIth scientific backing for its value, he thinks he is justified in the hours wasted!
colan, toronto, canada
I can clearly remember when this problem came to our server. A raiding guild that was unsuccessful had several members that "brought" the problem back to one of the main cities in the game. (Ogrimmar.)
Within the hour the "corrupted blood" had laid waste to the cities population with the skeletons of player characters quickly choking the streets. The virus then spread to both of the other main cities through players seeking to share the fun. Other players made sure to "take" the virus to the Alliance cities in an effort to make sure the apocalypse was shared.
It was unsettling to see character after character logging in only to die seconds later, unable to do anything to truly stop what had been unleashed.
Jim, Cottage Grove, MN
I was there as well. It was terrible. Some people were laughing it off, saying, "Haha, you got infected!" as if it were some kind of silly prank to pull, but some people were actually serious. They tried to keep the infected somewhere where they wouldn't spread it elsewhere, but no one listens and goes off and spreads it to be a jerk. No one panicked, though, but I believe that's just because you can resurrect without much penalty. I, for one, was tired of dying over and over from this disease. After about the ninth time I logged off and decided to play again next day.
But that won't be the way it is if there is a real epidemic. No one can log off of real life, and no one can reset the server if the virus spreads. But not many people panicked. I believe it will be the authorities who go nuts over this. If anyone is going to start screaming bloody murder if, god forbid, anything like this happens in real life, it's going to be the authorities and the media. I don't think we're ready.
Derek Payne, Longmont, Colorado
I was there. Some of the other details of the event are a bit unsettling - one, the "virus" was limited to a small area until the players deliberately brought it back to infect the general population, and two, despite the effect wearing off of a single character in literally seconds, it managed to persist for an entire day in most places.
While I would like to think that a real epidemic would be accidental, limited and people would act rationally, I suspect that humans won't be any smarter or nicer than the elves and trolls in this case.
Ryan, Winnipeg, Canada
"At last - something useful from a silly time waster"
what, apart from them not hanging around the streets causing trouble? Or not getting teenage girls pregnant?
Sometimes, when they cancel the trains and stop me from getting on with my life, I wish I was a character in WoW - able to bring down firey death on the... unhelpful... staff who stand there and act like lemmings, unwilling to do anything outside their box...
I can see the appeal of WoW.
Raymon, London, UK
The public rarely panic. The authorities often do.
Frank Upton, Solihull,
OK, nice little experiment from an unexpected source. But it would have been nice to read about what was actually LEARNED from this curious, accidental experiment.
Ben Hoff, New Jersey, USA
No more silly than your TV Colin. People coming together, and solving problems in a virtual environment are still using
their brains. Often they're meeting people from other
countries too, and learning from that too.
If you want to insult something go take a pop at Second Life.
WoW is a game, whereas SL is a media hyped dolls house
with added corporate hubris.
Dusky, Bristol, UK
WOW
Josh, Poway, CA
Situations as mentioned above could be cause with premeditation to see what will hapen. The institutions interested in good models for social behaviors could ask software companies to cause the epidemic situations without telling the players about that. It's not quite fair but it's acceptable according to me.
Gabalus, Cracow, Poland
At last - something useful from a silly time waster.
Colin, Hervey Bay, Australia