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From Times Online

April 11, 2008

Microsoft Windows 'in danger of collapsing', analysts say

A pair of Gartner analysts said that Microsoft's flagship product could be made obsolete by changes in modern computing

Jonathan Richards

Microsoft Windows, the operating system which has dominated desktop computing for decades, is in danger of collapsing, according to analysts at Gartner.

Microsoft's flagship product, which runs the vast majority of the world's PCs, has become so bulky and ill-equipped for the challenges of modern computing that it risks becoming obsolete, a pair of senior analysts at Gartner have said.

Threats from new web-based models of software delivery, a shift towards low-cost computing, and a reluctance on the part of companies to upgrade their machines to new operating systems for potentially limited benefits, have all contributed to the possiblity that Microsoft's dominance of the desktop may crumble, they said.

The increasing complexity of Windows has meant that the release times for new versions have become unpredictable, Michael Silver and Neil MacDonald, two VPs at Gartner, said. Windows Vista, the latest version, has 50 million lines of code, more than double the number of the 1996 version of the software.

Microsoft's focus on newer and larger versions of Windows also failed to respond to the significant growth in PC shipments in the developing world, the analysts said. Growth in developing countries, where governments and other buyers are keen to keep costs down, is running at 16 to 24 per cent, compared with 2 to 8 per cent in mature markets.

This was a factor in Microsoft's decision to extend the availability of the starter edition of Windows XP - the precursor to Vista - until June 2010, two years beyond the cut-off date after which manufacturers in Western markets will no longer be able to pre-load XP on their machines, they told the Gartner Emerging Trends Symposium in Las Vegas.

"For Microsoft, its ecosystem, and their customers, the situation is untenable," Mr Silver and Mr Macdonald said in a presentation entitled 'Windows is Collapsing'.

"It takes Microsoft too long to introduce new versions of Windows and once a new version is released, it takes significant time for the ecosystem to support it and for the release to stabilise. Organisations need to wait for that support and stability, and then deal with the enormous task of deployment and management for increasingly nebulous benefits."

But Windows was becoming unsuitable as an operating system (OS) for other reasons, they went on. It made diminishing sense to have a single, overarching operating system capable of supporting any application a user might need when new techniques meant that computers were much more flexible, they said.

Using a technology known as virtualisation, for instance, computers are effectively able to draw down from a central server the ability to run an application as and when they needed it. This has led to the idea of an 'adaptive OS' or a 'just enough OS', they said.

According to a Gartner survey in 2006, a majority of organisations anticipated that 6 per cent of their desktop computers and 9 per cent of their laptops would be running on Vista by the end of 2007, but a similar survey last year indicated that just 1 per cent of desktops and 3 per cent of laptops had migrated to the new system.

Microsoft, which derives 56 per cent of its revenues from licences for programs such as Windows and Office, is also under threat from a new model of software delivery known as 'software as a service', where companies and consumers can use programs via the web, and store their information on servers elsewhere.

Microsoft is already competing fiercely in the 'software as a service' market, and last month, for instance, released a version of Office which enables people to create documents using programs like Word on the web, so that they can readily be shared with - and edited by - others.

But it faces tough opposition in the form of companies like Google, which have already released a range of web-based products for both consumers and businesses in an attempt to break Microsoft's dominance of the market.

In a statement, a Microsoft spokesman said: "Microsoft disagrees with Gartner on the state of Windows. Unfortunately much of the data presented was based on relatively small sampling of Gartner conference attendees and doesn’t align with more rigorous research."

I use windows XP on my iMac (boot camp) and it runs better than it ever has, BUT i only use it for my file sharing programs as there are no really good ones for the mac. Leopard is awesome. Got Vista on a high end laptop, and i am so dissapointed. Bloated and slow. Now selling to buy an ibook.

daniel, ulldecona, Spain,

Go buy and Imac, instal xp if you miss windows so much, but revel in the glory that is Leopard, its a revelation. RIP windows.

p.s i tried Ubuntu, its nice, its free, but its no Leopard. I have tried them all...Apple has it.

daniel, ulldecona, Spain,

talk talk talk...windows still practically own the market, they won't be collapsing anytime soon. They'll slowly sucker everyone into Vista eventually, once they get around to ironing out their purpose built inhibitions & eventually release another top end OS...they're under no obligation to do anything else, who's realistically putting their business model under pressure? Apple mac? pulease. Sales are down because everybody has cottoned onto their cycle of evolution (except the people posting comments it would appear).

j anderson, London.,

I have more of an ethical problem with windows and apple, but Linux and the open source initiative have solved that. Personally, I can do everything I want to and more on my Ubuntu desktop, plus it runs much faster. I don't have a problem with other people using microsoft and I'm not going to preach how linux is so much better and will replace microsoft boxes, but hey, it's true for me.

Steph, NC, US

I have used PCs since they appeared and worked in computing since 1968. I recently bought a Mac and now cannot understand why the world still uses Windows.
It's true about Mac - it just works and is so much easier.

If you want to play, or should I say fool, around stick with Windows or Linux or whatever.

If you want results switch to Mac.

Dawson, Warwickshire,

After trying out Vista and being totally disappointed, I've switched to Ubuntu Linux. Although it's probably not straightforward enough for new users, anyone with a moderate grasp of computing could use it.
This year I will be choosing software solutions to build my business - I will almost certainly be choosing Linux and open source software.

Jimmy, Shanghai, China

I agree with Jamie fully. Apple and UNIX user base is just a fraction of what Microsoft has. People have always been saying that Linux will replace Windows but that didn't happen as I believe Linux is still in an infancy stage and they need atleast a decade more to comeup with a refined product. I recently had to recompile my OS kernel to get my sound card to work in Linux.
Its not only the OS, there are other technologies where no one comes near Microsoft - Visual Studio IDE and DirectX are some of them.

Shahid, Wokingham, UK

Just forget all the technical jargon above, Just buy a MAC and start enjoying using a computer again. It really is that simple!

Brian Mentor, Bournemouth,

Note to Mac worshippers - while I will cheer when Microsoft crumbles and collapses under it's own bloated OS, going to Mac is, as was said, just going to replace Microsoft. It's not going to -change- anything in particular, we'll just have a different name for our huge computer monopoly that looks slightly nicer and doesn't play games.

Me? I'm saying bye to Microsoft and uprooting to Linux instead.

J.Lane, Aberdeen,

I'm not saying Windows is perfect, i'm not saying that Microsoft shouldnt rewrite Windows from scratch rather than keep recycling old code. But really what alternative is there to Windows?

Buy a Mac it will cost you considerably more due to the hardware cost. Install a Mac OS on a PC and you will have driver problems, support all available driver problems and it will be just as bloated as Windows.

Having developed UNIX programs for a number of years at my previous employer. I can tell you that UNIX and spinoffs, really arent any faster to run, again they run into driver problems, and have limited functionality.

Both Mac's and UNIX have no problems with virus's simply because they make up such a small percentage of end users. As their popularity grows so will their virus problems. Incidentally I havent had a virus on any of my Windows machines in 15 years. Simply because I follow basic security guidelines. Since 2000, Windows never crashes for me either.

Jamie, Maidstone, England

"My Windows is rock solid. Seldom if ever crashes. Does everything I need it to, and MORE than any other OS can do. It plays games. Modern games. Right out of the box."

has 10000s of viruses backdoors and trojans on it but hey it plays games and is rock solid - just as well it is as hackers need good uptime !

j, derby, uk

Looks like Vista is the new ME.

If history is any indicator, sometime within the next 3 major versions of Windows there will be a release that's fairly decent (XP SP2 being the most recent one).

OSX and Windows both have pros and cons for their UI (OSX taking the cake for aesthetic user experience). But it's what's under the hood that defines why Windows may be collapsing, as well as the overall business model (and in that respect, Apple and M$ are in the exact same boat when it comes to installed OS/apps vs SaaS). As for the whats-under-the-hood, Vista is bloated and power hungry, suffers from stability and security issues, some major, some not. My Mac freezes up and apps crash, but not as often as in XP even. I daren't try Vista and may never do so unless it gets the kind of word-of-mouth reviews XP got when SP2 finally rolled around (til then I was a Win2k man).

Jon, O-Town, UT

Windows won't collapse - the price structure of windows will - and that will be a real revolution.

kevin, Lincoln, UK

Windows is in danger of collapsing? In my book, it officially collapsed with the release of Vista ...

John Contarino, Burlington, NJ

Ubuntu will take over. It's free, lighter than MacOS and Windows, and has a nice GUI. It still has some revisions before it hits prime time, though. I have a 486 733MHz that runs faster with Ubuntu/Linux than my 2.8 GHz dual core Pentium M with XP.

Ryan, Gainesville, FL

My Windows is rock solid. Seldom if ever crashes. Does everything I need it to, and MORE than any other OS can do. It plays games. Modern games. Right out of the box.

I don't need emulators or clunky non-upgradeable consoles with poorer performance. I have a PC and it runs Windows.

Now, if I didn't use my computer for entertainment I guess I could get by on some less used OS like Linux or OSX. Sadly, or perhaps not, I do use my computer for entertainment and therefore it runs Windows.

Bill, Stoney Creek, Ontario

I do get bored listening to all that silly "buy a Mac" business. How do you think the world of computing would look if Apple had come to dominate instead of MS? Answer: much the same, except possibly more expensive and less convenient. The hero worship of Apple is mystifying; they build some stylish and very good products, but are often compromised in other ways (the iPhone, the wholly silly thin laptop), and in the end they are just another bloated US mega-corp who want to rule the world - just with better marketing.

Windows isn't "useless" and doesn't crash every day - that's plain silly, unless you are doing some wacky things to your PC. I'm a power user of Vista and XP at work and at home, and whilst there are frustrations, mostly they work just fine. Open source is a nice idea, but in a world where many, many people find Vista too complicated to understand, the convulated, bodged-together, under-supported world of Linux and it's 57 varieties just isn't going to work for people

Eric Ambleside, Yorkshire,

WIndows 2000 (1999):
35 million lines of code
256MB RAM for optimal speed
800MB disk space

Windows XP Pro (2001):
~40 million lines of code
512MB RAM for optimal speed
1500MB disk space

Windows Vista (2006):
~55 million lines of code
2048MB RAM for optimal speed
15000MB disk space

Now, between 2001 and 2006, what happened to let Vista become exponentially more bloaty than before?

D C, MN, USA

My windows collapses almost everyday, there is even an error code when after its booted up!

Farrukh, Woking, UK

Too bad most people who know anything about the computer industry hate microslop. That company has yet to come up with anything original, let alone a business model that is something other than parasitic.

delapaix, Portland,

It is absolutely possible that Windows will collapse, even in the corporate environment. Remember IBM's dominance of the corporate PC market?

As has been mentioned, Microsoft should develop a small, stable OS, and use virtualization for compatibility with older software. Apple did much the same thing in the switch from OS 9 to OS X with good results. As Microsoft owns Virtual PC, they have the tools to do this without any added expense or development time.

And, ffor those wanting to try Ubuntu, there is an even better way than the live CD. Search for Wubi and download and run it. It creates a virtual partition and dual boot setup for a Windows PC and installs Ubuntu (easiest Linux install I have ever seen - answer a few questions and walk away). It doesn't create a real partition, and you can uninstall it simply by running Wubi a second time. The big advantage is that Ubuntu will run at full speed, while a live CD is very slow.

Bob D, Jersey City, NJ

Microsoft OS has become so unreliable and vulnerable that I want to upgrade from Microsuck to Linux. I'm sure Linux has its own set of problems, but at least I wont be dependent on the Microsuck Corporation to support the products it sells. Problem is that right now I only have about 500 megs of space to install linux. A full implementation of Linux takes up more space than that. I think I've found an old version of Linux that will install within the 500 megs I have available. Do you know of any other mini-installations of linux that I could download as an ISO and burn to CD or possible boot Linux from a CD ? How about a DOS-based browser that's reliable and secure ?

Gary, NlrAr (4/12/2008)

Gary, Arkansas, USA

Just buy a Mac and see the light

Grant, Oxford, UK

Had to happen, just a matter of time. "HELLO" Apple!

jack, chicago, USA

As a Linux geek, one who teaches an intro to Operating Systems college course, that I wrote to include a Linux component, as well as the writer of Linux Networking I and II courses in the degree curriculum, I can offer this qualifiedly. Those students who I have introduced to Linux have taken to it like ducks to water, and have requested other Linux courses as well.
The ONLY thing keeping Microsoft OS products alive are a: a vastly superior marketing department, and GAMES, GAMES, GAMES.
Microsoft has been quietly buying up game development studios for years, and has produced some excellent titles,to be sure.
But as soon as the Linux community turns its attention to developing an equivalent to DirectX 10, and an easily configurable MS emulator for gaming, then Microsoft will see it's mastery of the OS universe dissipate. And I, for one, can't wait.

Mark Zablocki, Huntington, NY, USA

There are other issues that will affect the public acceptance of Vista also. Once the "Protected Media Path" elements of Vista go into operation (they aren't activated until 2010 which is effectively how some trojans operate on a delayed basis) there will be a lot of shocked Vista users who discover their computer will no longer do certain things. It's designed to limit piracy through digital rights management but it will likely encompass far more than that.

For example it will likely be impossible to play HD content at full resolution because of the possiblity it might be copied using some unapproved software. It will also eliminate the ability to make personal backup copies of HD movies which is a protected act covered by the Fair Use Doctrine.

The ability to create and edit high definition video could be a casualty of this policy employed by Microsoft and forced on hardware makers who must build compliant hardware.

Jeff, Franklin Furnace, Ohio

I think I'll stick with Windows-98 on my Via-based motherboard with 2.6 ghz core2 celeron. No WPA for win-98 either, which means I can install it on all our office machines.

Joe Blough, Toronto, Canada

Windows 2000 Professional AND Fedora Core 8 (RedHat linux) running on an OSX iMac with Parallels. Only issue is I had to Pay for a fresh OEM copy of Win2K. Have this setup on 3 machines. Have been MS user since MS DOS 2.0 (+/- 1985), Stumbled around with Linux for a year (Mandriva, Ubuntu, Linspire etc) Switched to Mac last year after learning about Parallels. Best of all worlds.

Dennis, Woburn, MA USA

Download and Ubuntu LiveCd and give it a spin. There is less of a learning curve moving from Windows XP to ubuntu, than moving to Vista. There are still a few critcal apps (very few) that have no OpenSource equivalent, but there are many many more OpenSource apps that have no proprietary equivalent. Even the trade rags have mostly accepted that Linux on the desktop is viable. But even if you think it is not now, each day alters the balance in favor of OpenSource. OpenSource is not a panacea, but it is improving substantially faster than Microsoft, regardless of whether you believe it is already equal or superior to windows, there can be no doubt that it will be.

Dave Lynch, Lititz, PA

Woo-hoo! Smash Windows!
I've been saying this for ten years. Microsoft doesn't remove obsolete and buggy code - it just keeps writing more code to compensate for the bugs. With the average life-span of a programmer being three years (because their Microsoft stock makes it possible for them to retire), there is little continuity and little improvement in expertise.

Why would anyone want an operating system that hogs so much of their computers' resources that applications still struggle? And these almost daily critical upgrades - how sinister is that? No explanation of what they are or what they are addressing. I mean, c'mon - writing code that identifies a poplar and useful application like Lavasoft's Ad-aware as a viral suspect??

And one last laugh. I had to run a Microsoft diagnostic wizard last night to troubleshoot my Internet connection. It failed to run because Microsoft had written it to connect to the Internet. Doh!

OK, I've covered all the Homer Simpson mannerisms - bye!

Ed, Cardiff,

The great success of Microsoft has been in marketing, not technical brilliance. They are the McDonalds of the computer industry offering products that are colourful and visually attractive but well short of a gourmet quality. As with children at McDonalds, those least qualified to make an informed decision about a purchase of an operating system are actually making the choices. This has degenerated to the point of a common attitude â€˜Nobody ever gets fired for buying Microsoftâ€™.

It would appear that an opportunity is now presenting itself.

Stephen, Sydney, Australia

About a year ago, our company (25 users) upgraded all of its Windows computers to Vista Business and Microsoft Office 2007. Five Macs were updated to Mac OS X Leopard; just recently those Macs were updated to Office 2008 for Mac.

Everybody's been..well...very happy. And believe me, some of these people are otherwise real malcontents. You see, these people are knowledge workers: they use their computers to create, communicate and collaborate. Microsoft gives them a good platform to their job done.

I have dabbled with Ubuntu, Red Hat and the other Linux flavors. Nothing wrong with them at all. But when your business depends on productivity and creativity, so I'm putting my money on Microsoft.

Willem S, Evansville, Indiana

All that Mr. Gates has to do is release an XP lite OS, re-market it... and bang Wndows is back in the game.

There is no true alternative to Windows in the real word to date that can operate in all PCs and not only Macs, bar the 'geeks' linux route.

John Dough, Jerudong, Brunei

People who write these articles have forgotten (as have we all) that computers will ALWAYS need operating systems: ways to draw information on the screen, access the disk, interact with I/O, etc. The stuff we're talking about now is just the extra software. It comes with the OS, and we might call it part of the OS, but it's really just a pre-loaded application suite. Computers without software aren't any fun, so it's natural that bundled software and ease of use have grown into the major selling points. But, even if that software starts coming from an application server or via browser, without an OS to run those layers the computer doesn't do much. I'm sure that wherever opportunities exist to sell an OS to run future software, companies (M$ included!) will step in to fill the need.

Scott K, Washington D.C., USA

First of agree with John Rock about the lack of "viable" alternatives to Microsoft Windows particularily Mac OS and Linux. The fact that neither can make in-roads into Microsoft's desktop market even "when the OS is endanger of collapse" speaks volumes about either their usability or propietary hardware cost (Mac OS).

In the short if other OS players other than Microsoft cannot expand their market now then I believe they never will.

Jon Watson, Tauranga, New Zealand

Silverlight has this disruptive pontential & it runs ported apps on firefox on apple cumputers to!

Martin Chartrand, montreal, canada

I'm no Microsoft fan: I avoid their products whenever possible (MacOS, Firefox, PS3, iWork or WordPerfect Office).

But this kind of talk has been around before. Netscape, Java, "thin clients", and Network PCs were supposed to make the OS, and Windows, irrelevant. They haven't.

It seems Bill Gates has been vindicated in his assertion that nothing really can compete with the versatility and power of a full fledged PC for the individual end user, at home or work.

Carney, Maryland, USA

MAC OS has the same problem as Windows. They are both giant hunks of junk. They both face the same evolving threat: OS on demand. And Unix/Linx, beyond a relative handful of super Geeks, it's the biggest most convoluted mess of all. If your running a server great but for the end user it's like using a club to go hunting.

I don't know about you but I am dang ready for the brave new world in which Gates is retired to do his mega philanthropy full time.

John Rock, Santa Fe, New Mexico

Windows has become "bloat ware" in recent years. With the increased specification of home pcs its assumed that everyone will have the power needed to run these obese bits of software by forcing people to upgrade.

The argument "switch to mac" is commonly touted by people claiming to "know better" but what people don't realise is that macs and pcs have essentially the same hardware.

The "real" difference is the operating system, which is optimised for the hardware used and shows what kind of speed increase you can get by just changing to something better programmed.

You can install Mac OS X on a decent pc rig, and it will outperform windows on the same set up. The same is also true of almost any version of Linux.

Most of the technically inclined people i know wishing to use a windows platform still use 2000 as it has the same basic functionality of xp with less cost space needed. Combine that with 3rd party media players etc and you can get a huge increase in speed and reduced cost.

Rob Skene, Minehead,

Nothing lasts forever. The era of MS hegemony will pass just like the Model T, the dominance of GM, the housing bubble, etc. Smart people should be prepared for change, even if it doesn't happen instantaneously. Diversify your stocks and your technology choices.

Knute, Los Angeles, US

Windows is just useless, causes problems to everyone and complicates everyday life. The solution is....buy a Mac.

Stefanos Antypas, Newcastle Upon-Tyne, UK

Some very talented people have been working away for years on Open Source linux . I now run Ubuntu for most of my web requirements without fear of trojans and all the other nasty threats. What I object to is having to accept Windows on any new computer I may buy and paying Mr. Gates for the privilege.
Until manufacturers and software houses start to seriously consider alternative platforms we are obliged to pay homage to the almighty .
Web based applications are fine as long as you bear in mind that "The World" can see your data (no matter what you are told).

Paul Davis, Bristol,