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The reality could scarcely be more different. Huge swathes of the economy — travel, entertainment, retailing, media, manufacturing, telecommunications — are facing enormous change and disruption in the next few years.
Some traditional distribution mechanisms, and even some products and services, may disappear. So far, the clearest example of this has been in the music business, where the rapid growth of song downloading, and the decline in sales of CD singles, has shaken the recording industry.
Legal downloading of music over the internet was a minuscule business even 18 months ago. But the rising popularity of the digital medium has just forced the compiler of the British charts to include downloads alongside CD sales in a combined listing.
Keith Woolcock, technology analyst at Westhall Capital, said: “We all thought the internet was over-hyped and it had gone away. But it’s back. The big difference this time is that the infrastructure has been upgraded. Broadband networks are in place and they are being upgraded. Roughly 30% of households in the developed world now have broadband.”
Plumbers, perhaps, can continue to ignore the internet. But most businesses, even small and unconventional ones, don’t have that choice.
Al Coulston was recently the subject of a Channel 4 documentary called Touts on Tour. He complains that Ebay, the phenomenally popular auction site, has “absolutely crucified” the touting business.
“People get their tickets and the first thing they do is put them straight on Ebay and ask extortionate prices for them that we simply can’t match. Newspapers make it worse by printing the prices they reach so everyone else wants silly money for their tickets.
“We are lucky to make any more than £100 on any one deal purely because of the cost of buying the tickets in. The market is completely outrageous.”
Coulston is now trying his hand at running a ticket agency in Wembley. But touts are not the only ones who will have to change.
Woolcock said: “Life is all about adaptation. If you don’t adapt you’ll be out, like a 1970s Birmingham engineering company.”
ANYONE wondering why so many high-street retailers are struggling doesn’t have far to look.
Online sales are growing rapidly. Last Christmas in Britain, they rose by 20% over the previous year to £3 billion, according to research by Interactive Media in Retail. Even this increase trails behind the acceleration of the more advanced American market, where Comscore Networks estimated that seasonal sales grew by 28%.
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