Gary Duncan: Economic view
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It has been a long, wearying weekend that the world's most powerful financial officials will likely live to regret. This was the moment when they peered into the abyss of global financial cataclysm — and then decided to take a step closer to the edge. It may yet live in infamy.
With the eyes of the world upon them and the bedrock of the global financial system crumbling under their feet, finance ministers from the big Western economies decided that this was the ideal moment to show resolve only to remain irresolute; to decide only to stay undecided. It is the mother of all bungles.
The world and its economic leaders last gazed, terrified, at impending economic catastrophe on the present scale ahead of the Great Depression of the Thirties. Then, as now, they bungled the pressing call for determined and concerted action. In the summer of 1933, as economic events spiralled out of their control, governments met in London to agree a response. The meeting collapsed and so, too, did the global economy. The American and German economies were to shrink by 50 per cent and unemployment across the developed world soared to almost a third of the workforce, remaining in double-digit percentages throughout the next decade.
We do not — yet — confront such disaster, yet the contrast between the result of the past weekend's crisis meetings in Washington and what might have been is telling. After the failure of 1933, it took another decade of economic trauma for the West to be galvanised into action. In 1944, the Bretton Woods Agreement created a coherent system of global economic co-operation that provided the foundations for two decades of lasting recovery and unprecedented prosperity.
After Bretton Woods, John Maynard Keynes, who led the talks, said: “All of us here have the greatest sense of elation. All in all, quite extraordinary harmony has prevailed. As an experiment in international co-operation, the conference has been an outstanding success.”
There was no trace of elation on the drawn faces of finance ministers and central bank governors after the past weekend's unedifying efforts in Washington.
A veneer of harmony — in the form of a statement from the Group of Seven (G7) leading Western economies that staked out a co-ordinated set of agreed principles for tackling the turmoil — merely papered over the failure to produce tangible, immediate measures to end the mayhem.
The principles ticked the right boxes on the policy steps that governments must take: bolstering the solvency of the global banking system; restoring liquidity to end the paralysis of markets for lending between the banks; reassuring bank depositors with appropriate guarantees of their deposits; and acting through a co-ordinated, if not collective, approach.
This was necessary but far from sufficient. It leaves the fate of the Western economies hanging on bit-by-bit national measures based on these relevant but vague principles. That falls far short of the concrete and coherent global strategy that was needed from the past weekend and still carries the clear danger of allowing the consequences of the steps taken nationally to spill over countries' borders in a destabilising way.
It is said that there are three kinds of organisations: those that make things happen, those that watch things happen - and those that wonder: “What happened?” Over the weekend the G7 put itself in the second category. It may well end up in the third in only a few days.
Why has this drastic failure of leadership happened? The causes seem to come down to a dismal combination of caution, cowardice and incomprehension. Astoundingly, some, though not all, of the big players seem yet to grasp the compelling urgency of events, nor are they diagnosing correctly the threat that the world confronts. In Europe, in particular, some countries and their leaders continue to engage in a finger-pointing blame game, looking to the United States with a sense of misplaced Schadenfreude while muttering “J'accuse” under their breath.
This is not only counterproductive but also wholly misunderstands the roots of the global emergency. Sure, the folly of US sub-prime mortgages — lending to poor Americans with inadequate resources - was a catalyst for the crisis. Granted, Washington's decision to allow Lehman Brothers to collapse and pay the price of its own recklessness inflamed events and hastened the moment of maximum danger that we face today.
Yet these shattering events were only symptoms, not the ultimate source, of where we are now. The roots of the crisis can be traced back well beyond American banks' dodgy lending to, at the heart of the issue, a decade or more in which a global tide of extraordinarily cheap money fuelled a credit binge across the West, inflating the financial bubble that is now bursting with such calamitous results.
Deeper still, that deluge of liquidity and its results were created by vast imbalances in the global economy alongside lax monetary policy that the G7's leadership spent the decade debating, and pledging to end, while opting to do little or nothing in practice. Now, having sown the fair wind of all that cheap money, they are reaping the whirlwind of economic disaster. Finger-pointing in these circumstances is as irresponsible as it is puerile.
However, there still is hope and, curiously, it comes from Britain. The bold crisis plan assembled by Alistair Darling and Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, to take ownership stakes in the UK's banks, “recapitalising” the banking system while moving to unfreeze markets with a temporary guarantee for banks' fundraising, is rapidly being accepted as the only effective cure for a worldwide economic affliction that could otherwise prove terminal.
If other nations follow suit, swiftly and collectively, full-scale meltdown may yet, just, be avoided. That will not prevent recession across the West, and perhaps the globe, but it should stave off slump and a new depression. In 1923, as the Depression loomed, Keynes cautioned: “Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is long past, the ocean is flat again.”
This is not the time for bland reassurances that we will get through this storm and return to plain sailing. It is a minute to midnight. The time to act is now.
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I think we have missed a large opportunity to express what the consumer wants. Essentially we collectively own majority shares of the banks now. Gordon Brown have capped the bonus of the bankers but it is no benefit to us. Should we not be asking for a decrease of bank charges to £5?
Kevin Lau, Livingston, West Lothian
When all is said and done, who will buy all those 'preferred' shares, or whatever they turn out to be? Sovereign Wealth Funds in China or Saudi Arabia? I don't think so. It certainly looks like the death of capitalism as we've known it. And maybe not an all- bad thing.
philip collins, hopewell,
Tim
The problem is not with economics its with politicians ignoring economics..
"No more boom and bust" - any economist can tell you that is an impossibility. Inflating away what should have been a slowdown/mild recession in 2001 through cheap credit has led us directly to to this position.
Alex, London,
I've just read this 'bold plan' of Brown's includes guaranteeing all new bank lending - what a recipe for irresponsible lending of the kind that has led to this debacle, with the taxpayer picking up the tab, Just imagine any old loan that goes sour will be paid back by the taxpayer. Can't be right.
Robert Cookson, Milton Keynes, UK
The flaw is in the "recapitalising" assumption isnt it. Investors will want changes to the propped up banks business model, and customers will seek better value from better placed competitors. Money is either taken out directly by the banks from taxpayers, or those banks default on them!
john p-t, reigate,
You have left the credit default swaps debacle out of your analysis.
I know it is so much more convenient to claim that this all comes down to cheap money, but you cannot expect observers to ignore the fact that AIG went down because of its CDS.
You need some extra capital to shore up your ideas...
Chenier, London,
I think that all persons in de wordl should spend less money and evoid taking credits what aluays has been a danyerous action.
e, amondarain, Coronel pringles, argentina
Global issue ? Western issue? Europe issue? UK issue? The great CC clearly affects anyone who relies on another for any service where money is required to change hands.
If such a Global issue why is sterling down against the top 20 major currencies, some of which by 20% in twelve months?
Danny McGlade, Middlesbrough, England
To all those critics of the PM. You seem to be clutching at your very flawed view that the global crisis is his fault. You seem to forget that in the UK the architects of the crisis are mostly financiers and hedge fund managers who pay into Tory party funds. Get a grip and face reality.
mac, Manchester, UK
Hurrah! Flat Earthers strike back, reassert control of public opinion and get reelected again
raj, harrow,
To Bernadette in Australia - nice to know that you have politicians that you can 100% trust to tell you the truth. Forget the southern cross, why not have a pig flying on your national flag ?
Michael Taylor, Hoddesdon, UK
Brown has ruined this country yet he gets a boost in the polls for doing so!! People have the attention span of an ant.
Albert Hall, kettering,
We lead the world in everything, we have world-class everything, the rest of the world must follow our example, and so on. All put out by the Office of Number Ten. At the group photo after the Elysee meeting yesterday, Brown was on the back row at the end, standing on tip-toe so he would be seen.
john problem, Hackney Wick, uk
Gary, yes indeed. It was the famous Greenspan put and global connivance in it that has led us to this point.
Ken, Oxford,
'Twill be interesting to see what impact this has on the Budget next year; possible tax increases methinks...
David, Chester, UK
I've never been more glad to be an Australian.Sure we copped a hit on the markets but our PM last night announced that all bank deposits are 100% garenteed for the next 3 years with no cap and our economy is still likely to grow ,although a bit slower. Best place in the world to be right now.
Bernadette, Sydney, Australia
If the journalists did deep, they will find that the plan came from the bankers who met Darling a week ago, while he was dithering what to do. Brown and Darling the New Labour apparatchiks would claim their own plan if it works. If not they will blame the bankers!
samson, LONDON, UK
Well folks when Laurel and Hardy have sorted out the Worlds problems.... We will have to return to our own problems like the housing markets... Perhaps some billions for the builders perhaps.....
Graham , Littlehampton,
It is amazing that the faliures of regulation are not more widely recognised. Before Brown changed the system in Britain we had not had a run on a bank through 2 world wars and the 1930s depression. Now he has switched from High Priest of Global Warming to High Priest of Credit Crunch. Hypocrisy!
TonyG, Newark, UK
Dear John Waller, there was nothing to stop Europe from regulating its own banks, or even Germany to regulate its own banks. But they didn't. Germany has been close to a basket case fo rthe last decade and still has much higher unemployment than Britain. Amgela Merkel only talked regulation last
Neil Murphy, cromer,
Keynes was as arrogant as Maestro Greenspan, who said that if his attempt to obviate the Kondratief 'winter' in 2001-2 by pumping easy credit into the financial system were to fail, the result "will make 1929 seem like a Sunday picnic". But though bubbles can be worsened, cycles cannot be prevented.
Graham Gold, Bangkok, Thailand
I've said it before, and I'll say it again. This debacle has shown the field of economics to be entirely useless as a means of understanding how the real economy works. Like Physics was before Newton, economics is stuck in Dark Age style logic and maths. Time for economics to become a true science.
Tim, Edinburgh,
This is Jingoism of the worst kind, pretending Brown is the saviour of the world. Finger pointing at two countries which have continually resisted better banking regulation for a decade is justified. Had Britain and the USA listened to, for exampe, the Germans this crisis might not have occured.
John Walter, bonn, germany
Australian Stock Market is up about 4% prior to lunch - doesn't seem to be all doom and gloom...
Mark H, Brisbane, Australia
"The roots of the crisis can be traced ... to... a decade or more ... of extraordinarily cheap money " That's only part of the problem. If the banks had been adequately regulated, they still could not have taken the absurd risks that they did. Financial deregulation has been a disaster.
Nigel, Berkeley, CA, USA
Gary,
The "bold crisis plan" while "assembled" by Darling and King is a credit to the treasury officials of the British Civil Service. How lucky we are to have such an excellent Civil Service.
R A Connell, Guildford, UK
I know it sounds very selfish, but frankly I don't care a fig what happens in the rest of the world, only in the UK. I'm sure the other countries don't much care about us either. You will only get co-operation when their way of life isn't at stake, it's human nature. Just make sure WE're ok Darling!
David, St Albans, UK